On May 5, U.S. President Trump spoke with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, focusing their discussion on rare earth exports and the Taiwan issue. Former legislator Cai Zhengyuan stated in the program "Xia Ban Han Ni Liao" that this conversation serves as a warning for Taiwan, suggesting that Trump might be trading Taiwan's issues for the lifting of China's rare earth ban, potentially leading to a dire situation.

Cai noted that the content of the U.S.-China conversation goes beyond what was published in the press release, indicating that what the public knows is only part of the discussion. Importantly, the two leaders did not address the Russia-Ukraine war or Middle Eastern issues, instead concentrating solely on bilateral concerns. Xi emphasized the Taiwan issue, while Trump focused on rare earth elements, suggesting that China's indifference towards U.S. tariff issues is notable. Cai argued that in the U.S.-China tariff war, China likely holds the advantage; even though China's GDP is lower than the U.S.'s, its savings rate is 45%, providing a greater cushion against economic shocks.

Cai also highlighted that Xi did not bring up technological restrictions, as China currently possesses the capability to manufacture chips independently. Additionally, the limitation on the export of civil aviation engine components from the U.S. to China is unlikely to significantly impact China. The rare earth dilemma is described as "a noose around Trump's neck" since, despite the global abundance of rare earths, their extraction is challenging. China produces 80% of global rare earths and refines 95% of them. Should China restrict the export of rare earth elements, the U.S. could face significant difficulties for a decade, with the American Automobile Association already warning of a potential complete halt in auto production without timely imports.

Trump's press release indicated that the crisis regarding rare earths in the U.S. has been resolved, signaling that China is willing to lift its ban on exports. Cai suggested that Trump is likely using Taiwan's issues to secure the export of rare earths from China. Xi's remarks during their conversation about the need for the U.S. to treat the Taiwan issue cautiously highlight that China is untroubled by the prospect of war with the U.S. He emphasized that any conflict should be blamed on Taiwan independence activists and the U.S.'s mishandling of the Taiwan issue. Moreover, Cai warned that the current situation appears to be heading towards Taiwan's worst-case scenario, where Xi may be preparing for military actions against Taiwan, while Trump's inability to manage the Taiwan issue may allow China to shift the responsibility to Taiwan independence supporters and the U.S.

In summary, Cai underscored that Taiwan cannot solely rely on military power in the face of evolving challenges and should explore alternative strategies to address future threats.