Can Lee Jae-myung Break the Conservative Stronghold? South Korea's Presidential Election Faces Key Challenges

With just two weeks remaining before South Korea's presidential election on June 3, the race has intensified. According to the Korea Times, the voter sentiment in the southeast region (including Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province) and the attitudes of young voters will influence the final outcome. The traditionally solid support for the conservative 'People Power Party' in this region is beginning to show signs of cracks, while the youth aged 20 to 30, representing one-fifth of the national population, have also become a focal point for the major parties.
Polling from the Yonhap News Agency on the 16th indicated that leading candidate Lee Jae-myung of the 'Democratic Party' has a support rate of 50.2%, while 'People Power Party' candidate Kim Moon-soo is at 35.6%, and Lee Jun-suk of the 'Reformist New Party' is at 8.6%.
In conservative strongholds like Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province, Lee is slightly ahead with 41% support compared to Kim's 39%. This marks a significant warning for the 'People Power Party', which has long dominated these areas.
There has been a long-standing regional divide in South Korean politics, where the southeastern regions often support conservatives while the southwestern regions lean toward progressives. In the last presidential election in 2022, conservative Yoon Suk-yeol won Busan with 58.2% of the votes, while Lee Jae-myung garnered only 38.1%. Now, with Lee's support surpassing 40%, this could indicate a shift in favor.
The competition for young voters is also fierce, with approximately 12.49 million voters aged 20 to 30 considered a key decisive force. Polls indicate a close race between Lee and Kim in this age group, leading both candidates to propose youth-oriented policies. Lee's slogan emphasizes creating a country that offers opportunities and hope for the youth, with policies focused on employment incentives, public housing expansion, and financial support for new graduates. Kim promotes policies that promote tax incentives for companies hiring youth and aims to restore regular recruiting by major firms.
Experts note that despite Lee's national lead, uncertainties remain in the election. Key factors may include the so-called 'shy conservatives' who do not reveal their real intentions in polls, as well as any last-minute shifts in public sentiment.
Early voting in South Korea will take place from May 29 to 30, and the ultimate results may not be clear until the votes are counted on June 3.