Following the conclusion of U economic and trade consultations with China in London on the 11th, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed satisfaction with the trade framework, mentioning that Beijing would provide magnets and rare earth materials in advance. In response, former legislator Guo Zhengliang stated on the online program "Liangzi Lixue" that the U.S. feels completely powerless regarding China’s rare earth regulation, as "Trump hasn't learned his lesson."

He noted that while the U.S. has its own rare earth mines, it is unable to effectively refine them due to outdated extraction and refining technologies. Guo analyzed that the U.S.-China discussions seem to have hit another stalemate concerning rare earths, as the U.S. is nearing a shortage of these materials and is eager for China to loosen its regulations. However, China remains firm, insisting that the U.S. lift sanctions on semiconductors.

Guo recalled the period from 2010 to 2014 when China imposed rare earth controls on Japan, during which the U.S. and Europe jointly filed a complaint with the WTO, resulting in China's defeat and its obligation to open rare earth exports by 2015. He questioned why the U.S. is not pursuing a similar route this time, suggesting it is because China has learned from its previous experiences and adopted a new strategy for regulating rare earth exports, making it difficult for the U.S. to file another complaint.

According to Guo’s data, in 2023, China's rare earth extraction accounted for 63% of the global total, with the processing reaching 92%. Although the U.S. has abundant mineral resources, it heavily relies on China's rare earths, which is closely tied to Trump’s disregard for the threat posed by China’s rare earth capabilities.

Additionally, Guo pointed out that the U.S. has a potential lithium reserve of 94.8 million tons, yet its actual lithium production in 2013 was merely 615 tons; similarly, the production of magnesium oxide in the U.S. was 35 million tons, but the actual output was only 350,000 tons. He emphasized that the U.S. lacks not only mining companies but also patents for refining and processing, as the government has not focused its efforts on the rare earth industry, resulting in persistent issues.

Furthermore, Guo noted that U.S. extraction and refinement technology is far behind that of China and is hindered by strict environmental regulations, along with inadequate processing facilities that contribute to low investment momentum. He stressed that the current rare earth conflict requires effective negotiation with China rather than relying on WTO lawsuits.

Finally, Guo urged that the U.S. must be prepared to compromise with China, possibly needing to lift significant parts of its technology sanctions in exchange for China agreeing to cancel rare earth export restrictions.