NVIDIA's H20 Ban Results in $15 Billion Loss: Guo Zhengliang Analyzes Huang Renxun's Strategy

NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun sharply criticized the Trump administration's ban on chip exports to China at the Taipei International Computer Show (Computex), stating that it is “destined to fail.” Former legislator Guo Zhengliang mentioned on the online program 'Dada Ping Ping Li' that Huang estimates that sales of the H20 in China will last at most three years, meaning a potential loss of $15 billion for NVIDIA, with yearly sales of $5 billion.
Guo further pointed out that while the H100 is already banned from sale, it can still be found in China through indirect trade. He noted that President Trump plans to establish a second major AI center in the UAE, though this move faces opposition from the American establishment due to concerns over indirect trade.
He emphasized that the situation with the H20 is different from that of the H100, as the H20 was initially sellable but has suddenly been banned. Guo believes the H20 will be completely replaced in the Chinese market within three years, and while Huawei has already caught up in some functions, NVIDIA still holds an overall advantage.
Guo also mentioned that China has enacted foreign sanctions laws in response to U.S. companies and that mutual sanctions between the two countries will increase. For example, companies that buy Chinese products may be prohibited from reselling them to the U.S., or they will face sanctions.