Focus on US GDP Revision, PCE Inflation, and FOMC Meeting Minutes Next Week

Next week, global economic attention will center on a series of crucial data from the United States, including GDP revisions, PCE inflation, and the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The data is expected to indicate a potential slowdown in economic growth, while inflation pressures persist, partly due to tariff uncertainties.
Regarding corporate earnings, despite the earnings season nearing its end, investors will still focus on Nvidia's performance. Wall Street analysts generally have high expectations for Nvidia's earnings report, projecting a record quarter with revenue expected to reach $43.38 billion, a significant 66% increase year-on-year.
Nvidia's AI expenditures draw significant attention since it holds a high value in the AI server domain, but sales pressures in the Chinese market pose a substantial risk to the earnings outlook. Nvidia previously warned of up to $5.5 billion in costs arising from new regulations, which are anticipated to reduce its gross margin from an initial forecast of 71% to around 58%. Nvidia's CEO described the ban as "very painful," stating that the company sacrificed substantial sales and taxes due to it.
The second estimate of the United States' Q1 GDP showed a seasonally adjusted annualized decline of 0.3%, marking the first decrease since Q1 2022. However, many analysts believe this initial estimate widely underestimates US economic growth.
On Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be published, a key inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve. March data showed a slowdown in both overall and core PCE year-on-year growth rates. However, the latest S&P Global Flash US PMI data for May indicates that US price pressures are rising, contrary to the general trend of declining price pressures observed in G4 economies.
Additionally, the FOMC meeting minutes will provide further insights into discussions held during the last policy meeting. In that meeting, rates were kept unchanged, and a decision was made to slow the reduction of the balance sheet starting in April.
Furthermore, Europe will release preliminary inflation data from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, which will assist in assessing the European Central Bank's future policy direction. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Bank of Korea (BoK) are expected to announce interest rate decisions, with both countries likely to consider cutting rates due to tariff uncertainties.